US President Mr. Barak Obama made a speech
in Cairo University on June 4th 2009 . In his, almost hour long speech, Mr. Obama outlined
the United States future Middle East policy. As Mr. Obama
starts his second term in office it becomes critical to examine, how did
the actions of the Obama administration match the content of the Cairo speech; and possibly predict what lies ahead, specifically for my beloved birthplace and homeland, Egypt.
Following extracts from Obama speech about democracy are particularly relevant:
“I know there has been controversy about
the promotion of democracy in recent years, and much of this controversy is
connected to the war in Iraq. So let me be clear: no system of government can
or should be imposed upon one nation by any other. That does not lessen my commitment,
however, to governments that reflect the will of the people. Each nation gives
life to this principle in its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own
people. America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we
would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election. But I do have an
unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to
speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule
of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent
and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. Those are
not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support
them everywhere.
There
is no straight line to realize this promise. But this much is clear: governments
that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure.
Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the
right of all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even
if we disagree with them. And we will
welcome all elected, peaceful governments – provided they govern with respect
for all their people.
This
last point is important because there are some who advocate for democracy only
when they are out of power; once in power, they are ruthless in suppressing the
rights of others. No matter where it takes hold, government of the
people and by the people sets a single standard for all who hold power: you
must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the
rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and
compromise; you must place the interests
of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your
party. Without these ingredients, elections alone do not make true democracy.”
The
Obama administration followed the premise of the Cairo speech above and, largely, stood by the
side of the peaceful demonstrators against the longtime dictator and US ally Hosni
Mubarak, which led to his fall and a transition period run by
his top Generals. The transition period was marred by human rights violations that rivaled the Mubarak thirty-year era. As the transition period ended with the
presidential elections between two undesirable candidates; the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mr. Mohammed Morsi vs. Mr. Ahmad Shafiq who was a Mubarak loyalist and his last prime minster. On June 24, 2012 the Muslim Brotherhood
candidate won the elections by 51.7% of the vote, following agreeing but not guaranteeing a number of concessions to the revolutionary opposition, who agreed to back Morsi. The revolutionary camp could not contemplate the idea of an ex-army general, with strong ties to the Mubarak regime, as president. Alleged back-room deals between the Muslim Brotherhood and the army generals paved the way for declaring Morsi winner.
On November 22, 2012 Egypt entered another
phase of political instability when Mr. Morsi issued a declaration designed to
protect the work of the Constituent Assembly drafting the new constitution from
judicial interference. This declaration, in effect, immuned Mr. Morsi's actions
from any legal challenge. The sweeping declaration had other articles designed
to appease the masses such as retrials of those accused of killings peaceful protestors during the Mubarak era. Such articles added no real
legal value, as they required new evidence to be presented to justify these retrials.
Peaceful protests erupted immediately in Egypt demanding withdrawal of the declaration and formation of a new Constituent
Assembly that is balanced and representative of all Egyptians instead of the
current assembly that is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and their Salafi and other Islamist supporters. The Muslim Brotherhood armed militias dealt with
these protests utilizing brutal force killing 6 protestors and wounding hundreds.
Two Muslim Brotherhood supporters were killed in the ensuing clashes.
The
Obama administration, at this critical moment, faces a critical test regarding its
true intentions for Egypt's fledgling democracy. It is becoming apparent that the Muslim Brotherhood and their president advocated democracy
when they were out of power; once in power they became ruthless in suppressing
the very same democracy that got them into power, not unlike what Mr. Obama predicted in his Cairo speech. So far the Egyptian people are getting mixed signals from Washington, on the one hand, the Obama administration stood by Morsi as a pay back to the ceasefire he helped broker between Israel and Hamas, on the other hand the Obama
administration started slowly to pull away from the Egyptian regime hoping
to nudge the Muslim Brotherhood into negotiating with their
opposition.
There are few questions upon
us at this point. Could
the Obama administration have predicted the outcome in Egypt as it is
today? Yes! The US administration knew well the nature of the Muslim Brotherhood as a supremacist organization
which has been aiming to gain control over Egypt for over eighty years and would use all possible legal and illegal means to achieve its goal.
It is also apparent to a student of history such as Mr. Obama, that the Muslim Brotherhood will stop at nothing to spread its
reach over the Arab and Muslim worlds to re-establish the lost Islamic Caliphate.
Could
the Obama administration have changed the outcome in Egypt? No! The Obama
administration did not have much choice in the outcome thus far. The Muslim Brotherhood was the only organized group when the Mubarak regime fell in February 2011 and was the only force willing to provide concessions and guarantees to both the US government and the
Egyptian military. Also the Obama
administration stayed away from changing the outcome because it did not wish to
repeat the past mistakes as in Iran when the US supported the brutal Shah
regime to the bitter end and gained an unrelenting enemy, and in
Algeria when the US government supported an army overthrow over elected Islamists resulting in a bloody, decade long, civil war with an estimated 200,000
casualties.
Does
the Obama administration know if the Muslim Brotherhood is bound to fail in
running Egypt as a country? Yes! I need to give the Obama administration the
benefit of the doubt in this and assume that the administration is fully aware
of the limitations of the Muslim Brotherhood as an organization who operated
underground for eighty years and recruited members, not based on talent or merit, but rather based on obedience to the internal hierarchy of the Brotherhood structure
all the way to its supreme Guide Mr. Mohammed Badie and his more influential deputy
Mr. Khairat El-Shater. The Muslim Brotherhood organization has demonstrated thus far, its lack of vision, management and communication skills
to solve Egypt's problems and will, likely, fail politically and economically. Currently, the
Obama administration is attempting to change the outcome of events by influencing the flow of aid and loans from the US, The European Union, the IMF and also
from the rich Arab Gulf States and tying this flow of aid to ensure a more democratic transition.
Even Qatar, a traditional supporter of Egypt's Muslim
Brotherhood, contributed two Billion Dollars to the regime in the form of a certificate of
deposit which can be withdrawn upon demand. The path to the Muslim Brotherhood
demise is clear, however the price that the Egyptian people will pay will
be very dear both in human and economic terms. The Brotherhood is fighting a war of
survival, they know well that if they lose this round, there would virtually be, no chance they will be able to recover because the Egyptian people will
defeat their ideology. As for the Obama administration the fall of the Muslim
Brotherhood will come at almost no cost and without US army involvement in the
conflict. Obama also predicted the following in his speech when describing the
path to democracy “There is no straight
line to realize this promise”. Was he telling the Egyptian people your path
from dictatorship to democracy is not straight and will unfortunately have a
Muslim Brotherhood stop along the way? Only time and the Egyptian people will
tell how this Obama experiment will end.
Michael Wahba
December 15, 2012
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