The Obama Middle East Experiment

US President Mr. Barak Obama made a speech in Cairo University on June 4^th 2009 . In his, almost hour long speech, Mr. Obama outlined the United States future Middle East policy. As Mr. Obama starts his second term in office it becomes critical to examine, how did the actions of the Obama administration match the content of the Cairo speech; and possibly predict what lies ahead, specifically for my beloved birthplace and homeland, Egypt.  

Following extracts from Obama speech about democracy are particularly relevant:

“I know there has been controversy about the promotion of democracy in recent years, and much of this controversy is connected to the war in Iraq. So let me be clear: no system of government can or should be imposed upon one nation by any other. That does not lessen my commitment, however, to governments that reflect the will of the people. Each nation gives life to this principle in its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own people. America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election. But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere.

There is no straight line to realize this promise. But this much is clear: governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure. Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the right of all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even if we disagree with them. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments – provided they govern with respect for all their people.

This last point is important because there are some who advocate for democracy only when they are out of power; once in power, they are ruthless in suppressing the rights of others. No matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by the people sets a single standard for all who hold power: you must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. Without these ingredients, elections alone do not make true democracy.”

The Obama administration followed the premise of the Cairo speech above and, largely, stood by the side of the peaceful demonstrators against the longtime dictator and US ally Hosni Mubarak, which led to his fall and a transition period run by his top Generals. The transition period was marred by human rights violations that rivaled the Mubarak thirty-year era. As the transition period ended with the presidential elections between two undesirable candidates; the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mr. Mohammed Morsi vs. Mr. Ahmad Shafiq who was a Mubarak loyalist and his last prime minster. On June 24, 2012 the Muslim Brotherhood candidate won the elections by 51.7% of the vote, following agreeing but not guaranteeing a number of  concessions to the revolutionary opposition, who agreed to back Morsi. The revolutionary camp could not contemplate the idea of an ex-army general, with strong ties to the Mubarak regime, as president. Alleged back-room deals between the Muslim Brotherhood and the army generals paved the way for declaring Morsi winner.

 On November 22, 2012 Egypt entered another phase of political instability when Mr. Morsi issued a declaration designed to protect the work of the Constituent Assembly drafting the new constitution from judicial interference. This declaration, in effect,  immuned Mr. Morsi's actions from any legal challenge. The sweeping declaration had other articles designed to appease the masses such as retrials of those accused of killings peaceful protestors during the Mubarak era. Such articles added no real legal value, as they required new evidence to be presented to justify these retrials. Peaceful protests erupted immediately in Egypt demanding withdrawal of the declaration and formation of a new Constituent Assembly that is balanced and representative of all Egyptians instead of the current assembly that is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and their Salafi and other Islamist supporters. The Muslim Brotherhood armed militias dealt with these protests utilizing brutal force killing 6 protestors and wounding hundreds. Two Muslim Brotherhood supporters were killed in the ensuing clashes.

The Obama administration, at this critical moment, faces a critical test regarding its true intentions for Egypt's fledgling democracy. It is becoming apparent that the Muslim Brotherhood and their president advocated democracy when they were out of power; once in power they became ruthless in suppressing the very same democracy that got them into power, not unlike what Mr. Obama predicted in his Cairo speech. So far the Egyptian people are getting mixed signals from Washington, on the one hand, the Obama administration stood by Morsi as a pay back to the ceasefire he helped broker between Israel and Hamas, on the other hand the Obama administration started slowly to pull away from the Egyptian regime hoping to nudge the Muslim Brotherhood into negotiating with their opposition.  

There are few questions upon us at this point. Could the Obama administration have predicted the outcome in Egypt as it is today?  Yes! The US administration knew well the nature of the Muslim Brotherhood as a supremacist organization which has been aiming to gain control over Egypt for over eighty years and would use all possible legal and illegal means to achieve its goal.  It is also apparent to a student of history such as Mr. Obama, that the Muslim Brotherhood will stop at nothing to spread its reach over the Arab and Muslim worlds to re-establish the lost Islamic Caliphate.

Could the Obama administration have changed the outcome in Egypt? No! The Obama administration did not have much choice in the outcome thus far.  The Muslim Brotherhood was the only organized group when the Mubarak regime fell in February 2011 and was the only force willing to provide concessions and guarantees to both the US government and the Egyptian military.  Also the Obama administration stayed away from changing the outcome because it did not wish to repeat the past mistakes as in Iran when the US supported the brutal Shah regime to the bitter end and gained an unrelenting enemy, and in Algeria when the US government supported an army overthrow over elected Islamists resulting in a bloody, decade long, civil war with an estimated 200,000 casualties.

Does the Obama administration know if the Muslim Brotherhood is bound to fail in running Egypt as a country? Yes! I need to give the Obama administration the benefit of the doubt in this and assume that the administration is fully aware of the limitations of the Muslim Brotherhood as an organization who operated underground for eighty years and recruited members, not based on talent or merit, but rather based on obedience to the internal hierarchy of the Brotherhood structure all the way to its supreme Guide Mr. Mohammed Badie and his more influential deputy Mr. Khairat El-Shater.  The Muslim Brotherhood organization has demonstrated thus far, its lack of vision, management and communication skills to solve Egypt's problems and will, likely, fail politically and economically. Currently, the Obama administration is attempting to change the outcome of  events by influencing the flow of aid and loans from the US, The European Union, the IMF and also from the rich Arab Gulf States and tying this flow of aid to ensure a more democratic transition. 

Even Qatar, a traditional supporter of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, contributed two Billion Dollars to the regime in the form of a certificate of deposit which can be withdrawn upon demand. The path to the Muslim Brotherhood demise is clear, however the price that the Egyptian people will pay will be very dear both in human and economic terms. The Brotherhood is  fighting a war of survival, they know well that if they lose this round, there would virtually be, no chance they will be able to recover because the Egyptian people will defeat their ideology. As for the Obama administration the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood will come at almost no cost and without US army involvement in the conflict. Obama also predicted the following in his speech when describing the path to democracy “There is no straight line to realize this promise”. Was he telling the Egyptian people your path from dictatorship to democracy is not straight and will unfortunately have a Muslim Brotherhood stop along the way? Only time and the Egyptian people will tell how this Obama experiment will end.

Michael Wahba

December 15, 2012

Everyone suddenly burst out singing!

The opening line of Siegfried Sassoon’s poem, written so many Novembers ago, came to my mind early Wednesday morning watching the Obama speech. This short poem, celebrating the end of World War I, contains so much hope: “And beauty came like the setting sun/ My heart was shaken with tears”. As I watched the tears streaming down Jesse Jackson’s face, I felt my own cheeks grow wet.

I was rather taken aback by my emotional reaction. After all, I am not African-American, nor do I have memories of this country during the Civil Rights era. Yet, as an immigrant to this country who became a citizen just before the election of George W Bush, this week I felt the most pride I have ever felt in my adopted country. Perhaps, as my husband pointed out to me, it has something to do with the fact that our immigration was a matter of choice rather than necessity. We had chosen to make the USA our permanent home and so the notion that we chose the things represented by the Bush administration made me secretly ashamed of my part in that choice, even though I did not vote for him.

Here is a chance for me to feel positive about my country’s future, to hold my head up with friends and family overseas. Of course, a cautionary note is sounded by history; World War I was, as we now know all too well, not The War To End All Wars. So, am I too cynical to suppose that Obama will not be the savior of the land? Anxiety can drain all enjoyment from life; moments of happiness are resented because we know misery is sure to follow. Tuesday night I threw caution to the wind and enjoyed the sensation of hope.

For hope is what it is all about; we the people must work to recover from our collective PTSD. Like the wounded soldiers returning from Iraq, it will not be easy, there are many obstacles ahead. But, with a nod to the Civil Rights struggles which have led us to this moment, perhaps this time truly we shall overcome.

FP
9 Nov 2008

American ...again and at last!

The years of my childhood were marked by shortages in the then socialist, self-reliant Egypt; by patriotic songs; by adults fearful of arrests; by stories of torture so everyone watched carefully what was said. The wars with Israel were also very dominant in my childhood, with the thunderous sonic booms of the Israeli planes and the horror of hearing them, after the bombing of an elementary school not far from Cairo by the Israelis, which killed some 250 kids just like me. In the seventies Sadat lifted Egypt from the soviet sphere and the October 1973 / Yum Kippur war with Israel restored Egyptian self confidence. The backlash against the failed socialist experience of Nasser and the complete defeat by Israel in 1967 came in the shape of an overwhelming “return to religion”. Islam became the solution and the fights of the girls in families shifted from being allowed to wear shorter skirts to being allowed to take up the headscarf. Universities saw a rise of fundamentalism. Islamist run student unions banned parties and cancelled concerts and, by the end of the seventies, Egypt was out of state imposed socialism and into the beginning of societal imposed fundamentalism.

I came to California almost 28 years ago. I loved the spirit of America, the easy going nature of the people and the diversity and tolerance. I had a well paying job before I came to America and was lucky enough to have been able to afford my first car, paid for with my own money earned before I came to America. I was not an economic migrant. As a twenty something, I waded into California’s young culture of the 80’s. I admired Ronald Reagan’s toughness on Russia and rejected big government but I hated Reagan’s shenanigans with Iran Contra and Robert Bork. I loved Reagan, still do, but I wanted the truth out as I later listened to the Iran Contra hearings on NPR and Pacifica Radio. Amnesty International was the first charity I contributed to. The stories of torture have always had an impact on me and the work of Amnesty International to stop it meant a great deal to me; still does.

In the late eighties I moved to Ohio and became an American. In the citizenship interview the examiner questioned my belonging to Amnesty International which I defiantly defended. The examiner had made a comment about Amnesty International helping illegal immigrants in Arizona and I still remember telling him that Amnesty International volunteers work on behalf of people in other countries not their own. I was relieved when he smiled and said: no problem. A few months later, I went to a big ceremony; I became an American; I registered Republican; I wore the flag pin and was truly proud to be an American. Being an American to me was a choice … it was not my country right or wrong. I had my idea of what America was and I was happy to belong to that, I bought in and I wanted to be an American.

I married another immigrant, from a different culture, and she too became an American. We eventually settled in Massachusetts, except for periods when I lived and worked in Asia and Europe. Mostly, my family remained at home. Yes, home, the US became home fully in every sense of the word. My Egyptian identity was always there and my ties with Egypt and family were always strong but America was my adopted country and I was comfortable with an Egyptian American mix and my kids growing up American with British & Egyptian heritage.

September 11, 2001 changed America for the worse. The American flag as a symbol changed for me. Foreign owned gas stations and restaurants put many American flags everywhere to protect themselves from backlash. I became more active in the Arab and Muslim American communities to help those less fortunate than I am. I wrote, I spoke at schools and churches, played a small part in revitalizing a community organization and became even more active in dialogue across faith and race. Gradually, I saw America change to something I liked less and less. The double speak of the 1960’s in Egypt was arriving in America ...the religious fundamentalism was taking over. I was horrified by the media and ordinary people maneuvering to avoid using the word “occupation” in Iraq. I was scolded by my wife and kids for going on a flight wearing a T shirt that said American Arab Anti Discrimination Committee in Arabic on a flight from Boston: I saw joy in the face of waiter in New York serving me coffee and commenting on the T Shirt in Arabic.

Most of all I was dismayed by Bush altering his job description from defending the constitution of the United States to defending the people of the United States and using this as an excuse to damage the constitution. The torture, the illegal detentions, the horrible practice of sending people to be tortured overseas given the clinical name “rendition”, the double speak, the racism. The damage to the US flag, the petty patriotism of my country right or wrong! The standing up in baseball games to sing God Bless America. The frightening religious fundamentalism that is mixed up with this fake patriotism to justify acts that can’t be of God or of the Constitution, all of this gradually led me to ask one big question of myself …do I still want to be an American? Is this me? Gradually I took refuge in my part of America, Massachusetts, New England and the North East which has pretty much remained sane as massive swathes of the country got caught up in phony, damaging, religious patriotism with racist and supremacist undertones.

I was very hopeful with Howard Dean and then John Kerry in 2004 but was deeply saddened when the reactionary anti constitution (and thus truly Anti American) wave took over and Bush won the popular vote by some 3 Million votes. Then a new face arrived on the scene, a black man even more articulate and intellectual than John Kerry and Howard Dean energized the masses in 2007 and 2008. This sounded very promising, there was hope again. I voted for Obama in the primary and, while he lost in my Massachusetts, he won my city. The era of adoration for the “Forrest Gump for President” could be coming to an end. Obama did not need to wear a US flag lapel pin to show that he loved America. Obama is not afraid of showing that he is an intellectual. Obama understands, admires and respects the constitution ….hallelujah and Allah Akbar...Finally someone I relate to has a real shot at winning.

I never much liked John McCain, but his choice of Sarah Palin was brilliant for my purposes …this election could really help me solve my identity crisis. Palin’s addition to the ticket made the choice very clear between Obama and Biden on the one hand and McCain and Palin on the other. Will America choose tolerance, freedom and democracy in action or will it choose this pseudo religious, supremacist patriotism? Will America vote on hope or fear? Will America vote for intellectual power and knowledge or a folksy inward looking hockey mom? I very much wanted Obama to win but most of all I wanted the result to be clear … a clear win for either side.

Americans born in America are more American than I am in certain respects and less in others. For them the process maybe is more emotional and possibly a tad tribal, for me the process must have a bigger intellectual side to it. I chose to be an American, not because I didn’t have another choice, not because of economic or other factors … I chose America because of what it meant to me 28 years ago, because of my memories and because of its spirit. I don’t believe that America is always right and that America is exceptional just because God blessed it. America is only exceptional by its tolerance and by the people’s rejection of tyranny and totalitarianism. Reagan’s words of freedom being “one generation away from extinction”, invoked by Sarah Palin in her debate with Biden, are so true, but wrong sided coming from her.

I voted and went back to work in Europe. I found a big election night party in Paris, so off I went and was in the middle of hundreds in a massive street party. Me wearing the official Obama campaign shirt and lots of French people and few Americans, the results came pouring in...PA goes for Obama and North Carolina and Ohio are leaning this way... I jumped in a taxi and went back to my hotel and as I watched CNN in my hotel room with more returns coming in, the tears rolled down from my eyes. America is back... Americans had a choice, a clear choice and have chosen a law professor who talks in complete sentences and nuances over folksy charm and supremacist ideas. For the first time since 2001, I will get my flag out again …. It is a proud flag that represent ideas of peace, of equality, of tolerance, of progress not the flag of conformance that says: don’t torch my gas station, America the beautiful not America the ugly. I went to work, in a suit and tie with my eyes red from lack of sleep, clutching my sweaty Obama shirt and showing it off... I am again truly happy with my choice of being an American.

Later in the evening as I watched the news and saw Jesse Jackson in tears I realized that the intensity of my feelings was nothing compared to those of the great grandsons and granddaughters of slaves. I can only imagine what it must feel to black Americans and I am thrilled for them. I remember in 1983 going to a country club in Montgomery, Alabama for a dinner and after sitting down the host suggesting we go elsewhere. Later my colleague explained to me that it was because of my non whiteness that the host decided to go elsewhere, after receiving looks I had not noticed. I looked down on the peasants from Montgomery and was not very bothered ….with the passing of the years, I recalled this experience again and my tears flowed again in happiness for Jesse Jackson and for black America... For me America is back but maybe, for some, America has finally, at last, arrived. One day I hope the words “Founding Fathers” will also include Martin Luther King because surely it was his dream that we are all witnessing now!

AA

November 9, 2008